Suppose the probability that a coin toss shows “head” is p, where 0<p<1. The coin is tossed repeatedly until the first “head” appears. The expected number of tosses required is
Correct Answer :
1/p
Solution :
The correct option is 1/p.
To find the expected number of tosses required to get the first head, we can model this process using the geometric distribution. Let be the random variable representing the number of tosses required until the first "head" appears.
The probability that a coin toss shows "head" is given as (where ). Consequently, the probability of getting a "tail" on any single toss is .
For the first head to appear on the -th toss, the first tosses must result in tails, and the -th toss must result in a head. The probability of this sequence is:
where
The expected value is the weighted average of all possible outcomes:
We can factor out the constant from the summation:
Let . The sum is then:
This is an arithmetico-geometric series. We can evaluate it by multiplying by :
Subtracting from :
(since )
Thus, we find:
Substituting back, we get:
Now substitute this back into the expectation formula:
Therefore, the expected number of tosses required is indeed 1/p.
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