Question Details

Suppose the probability that a coin toss shows “head” is p, where 0<p<1. The coin is tossed repeatedly until the first “head” appears. The expected number of tosses required is

Options

A

p/1-p

B

1-p/p

C

1/p

D

1/p2

Show Answer

Correct Answer :

Option C

1/p

Solution :

The correct option is 1/p.

To find the expected number of tosses required to get the first head, we can model this process using the geometric distribution. Let X be the random variable representing the number of tosses required until the first "head" appears.

The probability that a coin toss shows "head" is given as p (where 0<p<1). Consequently, the probability of getting a "tail" on any single toss is 1-p.

For the first head to appear on the k-th toss, the first k-1 tosses must result in tails, and the k-th toss must result in a head. The probability of this sequence is:
P(X=k)=(1-p)k-1p
where k=1,2,3,...

The expected value E[X] is the weighted average of all possible outcomes:
E[X]=k=1kP(X=k)
E[X]=k=1k(1-p)k-1p

We can factor out the constant p from the summation:
E[X]=pk=1k(1-p)k-1

Let q=1-p. The sum is then:
S=k=1kqk-1=1+2q+3q2+4q3+...

This is an arithmetico-geometric series. We can evaluate it by multiplying S by q:
qS=q+2q2+3q3+...

Subtracting qS from S:
S-qS=1+q+q2+q3+...
S(1-q)=11-q (since 0<q<1)

Thus, we find:
S=1(1-q)2

Substituting q=1-p back, we get:
S=1p2

Now substitute this back into the expectation formula:
E[X]=pS=p1p2=1p

Therefore, the expected number of tosses required is indeed 1/p.

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