Question Details

There are two bags. Bag-1 contains 4 white and 6 black balls and Bag-2 contains 5 white and 5 black balls. A die is rolled, if it shows a number divisible by 3, a ball is drawn from Bag-1, else a ball is drawn from Bag-2. If the ball drawn is not black in colour, the probability that it was not drawn from Bag-2 is:

Options

A

4/9

B

3/8

C

2/7

D

4/19

Show Answer

Correct Answer :

Option C

2/7

Solution :

The correct option is 2/7.

Let us define the events involved in this problem to solve it step-by-step using Bayes' Theorem:

Let E1 be the event that the ball is drawn from Bag-1.
Let E2 be the event that the ball is drawn from Bag-2.
Let W be the event that the drawn ball is not black (which means it is a white ball).

First, we determine the probability of choosing Bag-1 or Bag-2 based on the roll of a die.
A standard six-sided die has outcomes {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
The numbers divisible by 3 are {3, 6} (2 outcomes).
The numbers not divisible by 3 are {1, 2, 4, 5} (4 outcomes).

Therefore, the probabilities of selecting the bags are:
P(E1)=26=13

P(E2)=46=23

Next, we find the conditional probabilities of drawing a white ball from each bag:
Bag-1 contains 4 white and 6 black balls (total of 10 balls). Thus, the probability of drawing a white ball from Bag-1 is:
P(W|E1)=410=25

Bag-2 contains 5 white and 5 black balls (total of 10 balls). Thus, the probability of drawing a white ball from Bag-2 is:
P(W|E2)=510=12

We are asked to find the probability that the ball was not drawn from Bag-2, given that the ball drawn is not black (white).
Since there are only two bags, not being drawn from Bag-2 is equivalent to being drawn from Bag-1. Thus, we need to calculate P(E1|W).

By Bayes' Theorem, the formula is:
P(E1|W)=P(E1)·P(W|E1)P(E1)·P(W|E1)+P(E2)·P(W|E2)

Substitute the known probabilities into the expression:
Numerator:
P(E1)·P(W|E1)=13·25=215

Denominator:
P(E1)·P(W|E1)+P(E2)·P(W|E2)=215+(23·12)=215+13

To add the terms in the denominator, find a common denominator:
215+515=715

Now divide the numerator by the denominator:
P(E1|W)=215715=27

Therefore, the probability that the ball was not drawn from Bag-2 is 2/7.

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