Question Details

Activity Duration (in weeks)
t₀ tₘ tₚ
1–22412
1–3246
1–43411
2–5366
3–42514
3–5333
4–53615
5–6258

The expected project length is ______ weeks (in integers).

Show Answer

Correct Answer :

22

Solution :

The correct answer is 22.

To determine the expected project length, we use the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). First, we calculate the expected duration (te) for each activity using the standard PERT formula:
te=t0+4tm+tp6
where:
t0 is the optimistic time,
tm is the most likely time, and
tp is the pessimistic time.

Let's calculate the expected duration for each activity based on the values in the table:

1. Activity 1–2:
te=2+4(4)+126=2+16+126=306=5 weeks

2. Activity 1–3:
te=2+4(4)+66=2+16+66=246=4 weeks

3. Activity 1–4:
te=3+4(4)+116=3+16+116=306=5 weeks

4. Activity 2–5:
te=3+4(6)+66=3+24+66=336=5.5 weeks

5. Activity 3–4:
te=2+4(5)+146=2+20+146=366=6 weeks

6. Activity 3–5:
te=3+4(3)+36=3+12+36=186=3 weeks

7. Activity 4–5:
te=3+4(6)+156=3+24+156=426=7 weeks

8. Activity 5–6:
te=2+4(5)+86=2+20+86=306=5 weeks

Next, we identify all possible paths from the start node (1) to the end node (6) and calculate their total expected durations:

Path A: 1–2–5–6
Duration = te(12)+te(25)+te(56)=5+5.5+5=15.5 weeks

Path B: 1–3–5–6
Duration = te(13)+te(35)+te(56)=4+3+5=12 weeks

Path C: 1–3–4–5–6
Duration = te(13)+te(34)+te(45)+te(56)=4+6+7+5=22 weeks

Path D: 1–4–5–6
Duration = te(14)+te(45)+te(56)=5+7+5=17 weeks

The critical path is the path with the longest expected duration, which is Path C (1–3–4–5–6) with a total expected duration of 22 weeks. Thus, the expected project length is 22 weeks.

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